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The Decision Simulator

6 mental models applied to your real decisions. Expected value, Bayesian updating, Kelly criterion, base rate analysis, sunk cost isolation, and survivorship bias.

What are you deciding?

Payoff unit

Options (2/4)

Best-case payoff ($)

Best-case probability: 50%

Worst-case payoff ($)

Best-case payoff ($)

Best-case probability: 50%

Worst-case payoff ($)

Base rate: 50%

Already invested (sunk cost)

Sunk cost unit

Your edge: 20%

How much better is YOUR situation vs the average? 0% = average, 100% = significant advantages.